Except for tangerines, California oranges and Texas valencias, overall U.S. citrus production is forecast to decline this upcoming season.

In the season’s first official citrus forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Oct. 9 predicted production drops in all varieties of Florida oranges and all U.S. grapefruit.

At 55 million boxes, California is expected to produce 13.4% more oranges compared to last season’s 48.5 million-equivalent boxes, though overall U.S. orange production is forecast to be down 10% from last year’s 213 million boxes, to this season’s 192.5 million boxes.

Only Texas valencias are expected to increase, from 159,000 boxes to 200,000 boxes.

Florida orange production, which ships primarily to juice processors, is predicted to fall 16%, from 162 million boxes to 136 million boxes.

On grapefruit, all producing areas are expected to decline 10% from last season’s 33.1 million boxes, to 29.8 million boxes this season.

Specialty fruit such as tangerines are projected to increase 12%, to 13.3 million boxes, from the previous season’s 12 million boxes.

A big part of that boost is planned to come from Florida, which statisticians this season say should produce 77% more honey tangerines, up 1 million boxes from last season’s 1.3 million boxes.

For overall U.S. citrus, the USDA says the category is expected to pack 258 million equivalent boxes, down 9% from last year’s 283 million boxes.

The report is at the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service Web site.